Vanguard: 401(k) Balances Dropped by 20% in 2022, But Few Panicked

Posted on February 21, 2023 // 1 Comment

Vanguard has released some preview numbers from its 2023 America Saves report, which covers the nearly 5 million 401k, 403b, and other retirement plans that Vanguard administrates. More stats in this CNBC article.

Even though the average balance dropped by 20% in 2022, there wasn’t widespread panic or account changes. In fact, nearly 40% increased their deferral rate:

While average account balances decreased by 20% in 2022, primarily driven by negative market performance, participant behaviors mostly remained positive. Nearly 4 in 10 participants increased their deferral rate (either on their own or as part of an automatic annual increase), in line with previous years.

[…] And against a challenging market environment with increased volatility, only 6% of nonadvised participants traded, the lowest point in 20 years.

The table below goes into more detail. 50% of people kept their deferral rate the same, 24% of people allowed the auto-escalate feature to kick in, 15% manually increased their deferral rate, and 11% either manually decreased their deferral rate or set it to zero.

That means 89% of people kept their deferral rate the same or higher. 11% decreased. That 11% number is only a couple percentage points higher than in past years when the stock market went up.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Charlie Munger Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2023 Video, Transcript, and Highlights

Posted on February 20, 2023 // 7 Comments

Charlie Munger is now 99 years old and still answering blind questions on the fly at the 2023 Daily Journal Annual Shareholder Meeting. CNBC has posted the full 2+ hour interview with Becky Quick on YouTube. You’ll miss out on his snarky tone, but you may prefer to read the transcript, kindly provided at Steady Compounding (looks to be computer-generated… psst – the name is Rick Guerin!).

Munger remains refreshing in that he doesn’t filter everything into bland nothingness. He’s not afraid to offend with his opinions. I’ve included a few of my personal highlights below.

Only 5% of money managers have the skill required to consistently beat the index averages after costs.

And if you want an example of how denial is affecting things, take the world of investment management. How many managers are going to beat the indexes? All costs considered, I would say maybe 5% could consistently meet the averages.

Everybody else is living in the state of extreme denial. They’re used to charging big fees and so forth for stuff that isn’t doing their clients any good. It’s a deep moral depravity. If some widow comes to you with $500,000 and you charge her 1 point a year for, and you could put her in the indexes, but you need the 1 point. And so people just charge somewhat a considerable fee for worthless advice. And the whole profession is full of that kind of denial. It’s everywhere.

Crypto is (still) crap.

…when you’re dealing with something as awful as crypto sh*t, it’s just unspeakable. It’s an absolute horror. And I’m ashamed of my country that so many people believe in this kind of crap and the government allows it to exist is totally, absolutely crazy, stupid gambling with enormous house odds for the people on the other side.

And they cheat — in addition to cheating and like betting, it’s just crazy. So that is something. There’s only one correct answer for intelligent people there, just totally avoid it and avoid all the people that are promoting it.

Charles Munger is a billionaire, but rarely ever gambles in a casino or at a sports book. In terms of percent of net worth, Munger has bet the equivalent of the average person betting less than 5 bucks in their entire life.

Q: How do you feel about the gambling that took place at the Super Bowl and surrounding that and the legalized gambling taking place in this country at this point?

A: Well, it’s not as bad as crypto s***. I don’t think there’s much harm in betting a modest amount you can afford on a Super Bowl game. That strikes me as a pretty — thing if you do it with a friend and not with a bookie. So I don’t have the same feeling — I obviously don’t think you should have a gambling impulse around betting against odds. If you take all the money that I have bet against odds in my whole life, I don’t think it’s more than a few thousand dollars.

I’m all in favor betting with the odds.

Big picture thoughts on the future long-term performance of Berkshire and stocks in general:

Everybody that bought Berkshire and held it for 20 years has done well. I think that will be true for those who buy at the current price. I don’t think it will be as good in the future as it was in the past, but it will be okay considering how poorly everything else is going to do. Because the valuations start higher now and because government is so hostile to business.

I would say it will fluctuate naturally between administrations and so on. But I think basically, the culture of the world will become more and more anti-business in the big democracies. And I think taxes will go up, not down. So I think the investment world is going to get harder for everybody. And — but it’s been almost too easy in the past for the investment class. It’s natural that it would have a period of getting harder. I don’t worry about it much because I’m going to be dead.

The Daily Journal’s employee 401(k) plan has only one investment option: index funds.

…look at the Daily Journal Corporation. We just put in a 401(k) plan. What are the investment options for the people at work? Zero. It’s all index funds.

What percentage of American 401(k)s have our plan, index funds required? About zero. Am I right or am I wrong? Of course, I’m right. It’s a logical thing to do.

If you can afford to self-insure, you should do so. Insurance protects you against catastrophe, but there many extra costs built into the premiums (fraud, commissions, etc). Medical insurance is an exception because the insurance-negotiated cost is often much lower than the direct-consumer-pay cost.

In my own life, I’m a big self-insured and so is Warren. It’s ridiculous for me to carry fire insurance on my house because I could easily rebuild a house if burned down. So why would I want to bother fooling around with the claims process and all kinds of things.

So if insurance — you should insure against things you can’t afford to pay for yourself. But if you can afford to take the bumps, so unusual expense coming along doesn’t really hurt you that much. Why would you want to fool around with some insurance company. If your house burned down, I would just write a check and rebuild it. And all intelligent people do that way. I don’t say all, but — maybe I should say, all intelligent people should do it my way.

There should be way more self-insurance in life. There’s a lot of waste. You’re paying when you buy insurance for the other fellows frauds, and there’s a lot of fraud in life. And you can afford to take the risk yourself and not fool around with claims and this and that and commissions and time. Of course, you self insure, it’s simpler and so forth.

Think of what I’ve saved in my life. I narrowed it. I don’t care. I never carried — never. I think once — but with one exception, I never carried collision insurance on a car. And once I got rich, I stopped carrying fire insurance on houses. I just self insure.

Past years:

Filed Under: Inspirational, Investing //

Sports Betting vs. Investing: Slight Edges Adding Up in Very Different Ways

Posted on February 16, 2023 // 6 Comments

According to CNBC, over 100 million bets were placed over Super Bowl weekend. Sports gambling is becoming more and more accepted as a casual part of the entertainment, but right now people are hiding from their spouses and partners the fact that they lost hundreds, thousands, or more. They are already planning their next bets to “just break even” and “just get back to zero” whereupon they promise themselves they will stop. But the more they bet, the deeper the hole gets.

A quick lesson on sports gambling odds. The standard odds on a basic spread bet are -110. Let’s take Super Bowl 54 as an example, where the betting line is Chiefs favored to win by 1.5 points over the 49ers. You can either bet on the Chiefs to win by 2 or more points (since 1.5 is impossible), or the 49ers to either win outright or lose by 1 point or fewer. Simple bet, only two outcomes. However, you must bet $110 in order to win $100. If you lose, you lose the entire $110. Feels very similar to a coin flip. However, the slight house edge is actually quite enormous over time.

Let’s say two people bet. $110 on one side, and $110 on the other side. One winning side will win, so they end up with $110 + $100 = $210. The other losing side ends up with nothing. The sports casino took zero risk and gets $10. $10 out of $220 is 4.5%. The casino got 4.5% of the total amount bet with essentially zero risk (the line moves to equalize both sides).

This “small” ~5% edge happens every single time, grinding you down to zero at a fast pace. If you bet $100 each time and lost $4.54 on average every bet, you’d have lost the entire $100 in 22 bets. In reality, the spread of possibilities is much wider, but with each bet, you are that much farther away from ever “breaking even” again. You keep playing, and the only inevitable result is broke. The only way to avoid catastrophe is to stop and accept the loss.

I am always disappointed when intelligent investing and gambling are confused. Here’s a timely tweet from @QCompounding:

Too many people focus on the first row above. 60% win and 40% lose? It looks too much like a coin flip. I put in money and my balance is lower after a year. Why bother?! Investing is the same as gambling, right? No! Over time, the fundamentals will win out. Investing directly in a basket of profitable companies with growing earnings is betting with the odds in your favor. Similarly, if you consistently buy real estate with conservative cashflow numbers, the odds are in your favor.

Investing with the edge in your favor adds up in a good way. The current price/earning ratio for companies in the S&P 500 index is about 20. That means if you buy $100 worth an S&P 500 ETF, that basket is earning $5 of profit every year. That $5 may be sent to you as a dividend check or used to reinvest into the business for future profits. It is a different “5%” edge”, but one that makes me excited instead as those earnings tend to keeping growing bigger over time. As you can see above, that edge adds up and will eventually overwhelm short-term market swings.

I recently read in a Warren Buffett biography that he once bought a slot machine and installed it in his house. He allowed his children to play with it, hoping that they would quickly learn a valuable lesson once their allowance kept disappearing into the machine. I wonder if that really worked.

I used to read up on various gambling strategies, but I have since personally decided to never bet on sporting events or casino games in the hopes that my children will never find interest in it. I want them to think – Why would I ever waste my time on things that virtually guarantee me to lose my hard-earned money? Instead, I hope to teach them to be excited when they see a good investment with positive expected returns.

Filed Under: Banking, Investing //

Ally Invest and Ally Bank: Access High-Yield Vanguard and Fidelity Money Market Funds

Posted on February 16, 2023 // 9 Comments

Ally Invest is the self-directed brokerage arm of Ally Financial, and you may have an account from previous TradeKing and/or Zecco mergers. Ally Invest just removed their $9.95 mutual fund transaction fee, including for money market funds:

At Ally, we’re all about doing the right thing for our customers. That’s why we’re excited to share that as of February 9, 2023, we’ve eliminated our $9.95 mutual fund transaction fee.

You can access more than 17,000 mutual funds when you log in to your Ally Invest Self-Directed Trading account. Please note, other fees may still apply.

First of all, the default cash sweep for Ally Invest pays zero interest. In addition, this change may be of interest to customers who also use Ally Bank, given that their online savings account only pays 3.40% APY (as of 2/15/23). Meanwhile, here are the 7-day SEC yields (as of 2/14/23) of top money market funds:

  • Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares (VMRXX) – 4.51% ($3,000 min)
  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) – 4.50% ($3,000 min)
  • Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX) – 3.43% ($3,000 min)
  • Gabelli U.S. Treasury Money Market Fund (GABXX) – 4.43% ($10,000 min)
  • Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX) – 4.19% ($100 min*)

* The Fidelity fund does not have a minimum itself, but Ally has a $100 minimum order size for online mutual fund orders.

I have gone into my Ally Invest account and manually tested all of the money market mutual funds listed above, and it let me put in the order at the minimum amounts shown. Ally Invest also does not charge a short-term redemption fee. I was able to make an instant transfer of funds from my Ally Bank deposit accounts to my Ally Invest brokerage account. Therefore, if you have an Ally Bank account and don’t want to look too far elsewhere, you may consider this option to increase the yield on your cash holdings.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – February 2023

Posted on February 12, 2023 // 1 Comment

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of February 2023, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. We all need some safe assets for cash reserves or portfolio stability, and there are often lesser-known opportunities available to individual investors. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you’d earn by moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 2/12/2023.

TL;DR: 5% APY available on liquid savings. 5% APY available on multiple short-term CDs. Compare against Treasury bills and bonds at every maturity (12-month near 4.89%). 6.89% Savings I Bonds can be bought with 2023 annual limits now.

Fintech accounts
Available only to individual investors, fintech companies often pay higher-than-market rates in order to achieve fast short-term growth (often using venture capital). “Fintech” is usually a software layer on top of a partner bank’s FDIC insurance.

  • 5% on up to $25,000, then 4% up to $250k. Juno now pays 5% on all cash deposits up to $25,000 and 4% on cash deposits from $25,001 up to $250,000. No direct deposits required. $10 referral bonus. Please see my Juno review for details.
  • 4.00% APY on $6,000. Current offers 4% APY on up to $6,000 total ($2,000 each on three savings pods). Must maintain a direct deposit of $200+ every 35 days. $50 referral bonus for new members with $200+ direct deposit with promo code JENNIFEP185. Please see my Current app review for details.

High-yield savings accounts
Since the huge megabanks STILL pay essentially no interest, I think every should have a separate, no-fee online savings account to accompany your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • The leapfrogging to be the temporary “top” rate continues. Primis Bank at 5.03% APY for both checking and savings. All America/Redneck Bank is at 4.25% APY for balances up to $75,000 ($500 to open, no min balance).
  • SoFi Bank is now up to 3.75% APY + up to $275 new account bonus with direct deposit. You must maintain a direct deposit of any amount each month for the higher APY. SoFi has their own bank charter now so no longer a fintech by my definition. See details at $25 + $250 SoFi Money new account and deposit bonus.
  • There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at 3.40%+ APY that aren’t the absolute top rate, but historically do keep it relatively competitive for those that don’t want to keep switching banks.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 4.10% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 3.85% APY for all balance tiers. Marcus has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 3.85% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • BMO Harris has a 12-month certificate at 5.00% APY. $1,000 minimum. Early withdrawal penalty is 180 days of interest.
  • Capital One Bank has a special 11-month certificate at 5.00% APY. No minimum deposit, early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest.

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs*
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). * Money market mutual funds are regulated, but ultimately not FDIC-insured, so I would still stick with highly reputable firms. I am including a few ultra-short bond ETFs as they may be your best cash alternative in a brokerage account, but they may experience short-term losses.

  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund is the default sweep option for Vanguard brokerage accounts, which has an SEC yield of 4.50%. Odds are this is much higher than your own broker’s default cash sweep interest rate.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 4.33% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 4.43% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is some term interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 4.62% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 4.62% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks and are fully backed by the US government. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 2/10/23, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.61% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.89% annualized interest.
  • The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 4.18% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.10 years. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 4.11% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.08 years.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2022 and April 2023 will earn a 6.89% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More on Savings Bonds here.
  • In mid-April 2023, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.
  • See below about EE Bonds as a potential long-term bond alternative.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are severely capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore, as I feel the work required and the fees charged if you mess up exceeds any small potential benefit.

  • Mango Money pays 6% APY on up to $2,500, if you manage to jump through several hoops. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.
  • NetSpend Prepaid pays 5% APY on up to $1,000 but be warned that there is also a $5.95 monthly maintenance fee if you don’t maintain regular monthly activity.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • Genisys Credit Union pays 5.25% APY on up to $7,500 if you make 10 debit card purchases of $5+ each, and opt into receive only online statements. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Pelican State Credit Union pays 5.11% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into receive only online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization membership.
  • The Bank of Denver pays 5.00% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases of $5+ each, receive only online statements, and make at least 1 ACH credit or debit transaction per statement cycle. Thanks to reader Bill for the updated info.
  • All America/Redneck Bank pays 4.50% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 10 debit card purchases each monthly cycle with online statements.
  • Presidential Bank pays 4.25% APY on balances between $500 and up to $25,000 (3.00% APY above that) if you maintain a $500+ direct deposit and at least 7 electronic withdrawals per month (ATM, POS, ACH and Billpay counts).
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 15-month CD at 5% APY. Open now with just $50, but you can still add on more deposits later. You must have a military relationship to join NavyFed.
  • Sallie Mae Bank via SaveBetter has a 27-month CD at 4.85% APY. $1 minimum. Early withdrawal penalty is 180 days of simple interest.
  • Seattle Bank has a 5-year certificate at 4.70% APY ($1,000 min), 4-year at 4.65% APY, 3-year at 4.60% APY, 2-year at 4.55% APY, and 1-year at 4.50% APY. The early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is a very reasonable 180 days of interest.
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 5-year certificate at 4.63% APY ($500 min), 4-year at 4.58% APY, 3-year at 4.52% APY, 2-year at 4.47% APY, and 1-year at 4.42% APY. They also have jumbo certificates with $100,000 minimums at even higher rates. The early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is very high at 600 days of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I don’t see any competitive 5-year non-callable CDs. Be wary of higher rates from callable CDs, which means they can call back your CD if rates drop later.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CDs at (none available, non-callable) vs. 3.80% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs where they can call your CD back if interest rates drop.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate, currently 2.10% for EE bonds issued November 1, 2022 to April 30, 2023. As of 2/10/23, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 3.96%.

All rates were checked as of 2/12/2023.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Tiicker: Shareholder Perks: New $100 Amazon GC Offer

Posted on February 9, 2023 // 2 Comments

Update: Tiicker has added a few new Perks for Real Good Foods, the most direct one being a $100 Amazon gift card for holding 50 shares of RGF with no minimum holding period. There are also other bigger perks for holding a lot more shares for at least a week. The bid/ask spread was about 10 cents, so it cost about $5 to buy/sell 50 shares quickly. You can get this even if you already got the previous $50 gift card from owning RGF (now expired). Limited quantities.

Original post:

TiiCKER is a new app that helps promote certain brands and companies by encouraging people to become shareholders and investors. (They say “ii” stands for individual investor.) In the past, Wrigley used to give out free packs of gum to shareholders, Dial used to give out soap coupons, Colgate-Palmolive gave out discounts on toothpaste, and so on. Shareholder perks are still somewhat popular in Japan, from baseball tickets to bags of rice. Found via DoC. Here are the perks currently available:

  • Link a brokerage with $100 worth of ANY stocks held inside, get $11 Amazon gift card or Visa virtual prepaid debit card.
  • (EXPIRED?) Link a brokerage with $50 worth of Amazon (AMZN) stock held inside (partial shares allowed), get $10 Amazon gift card or Visa virtual prepaid debit card.
  • (EXPIRED) Link a brokerage with $50 worth of Real Good Foods (RGF) held inside, get $50 Instacart gift card. Limited quantities.
  • (There are other perks available, please see Tiicker site for current list.)

Sometimes they require a minimum holding period, but the perks above currently do not. A few screenshots of an expired perk:

In order to prove your ownership, you must link your existing brokerage account via the Plaid service. Plaid says it does not save nor share your username and passwords with anyone, and with many brokerages, you now log in directly on your brokerage website for authentication.

I can report that I was able to sign-up, link my account via Plaid, and grab the first two bonuses in under 5 minutes. Since this is not a brokerage account, no SSN was required. Gift card redemption was instant and easy. You may need to refresh or unlink/relink your brokerage account after buying the shares for it to recognize a new purchase, or possibly wait up to 24 hours. In many cases, the perk is quite valuable compared the cost of buying and selling the shares, although this can get tricky when the holding period is longer. In addition, I have noticed this “RealGood” brand at Whole Foods and may try it now, so hey, this marketing may actually work…

Tiicker has a referral program, although the reward is vague: “Spread the word and help others discover investor perks. Refer 5 friends and receive a free TiiCKER perk!” If you wish, you can use my my referral link. Thanks if you do.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Free Investing Book PDF – Two Funds For Life (Merriman and Small Value)

Posted on February 5, 2023 // 2 Comments

Paul Merriman is a long-time financial advisor known for his “Ultimate Buy-and-Hold Portfolio” that utilized a more complex 10-fund version of a low-cost index fund portfolio that includes additional exposure to certain asset classes. Although now retired from advising, he continues to add new content to his website for the Merriman Financial Education Foundation that is geared more towards to DIY investors.

More recently, he has been pushing the idea of a more simple “Two Funds for Life” portfolio that is essentially holding mostly an all-in-one Vanguard Target Retirement Fund (or a similarly low-fee alternative) and the rest in US Small Cap Value ETF or mutual fund. This concept is described in detail in the book 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies by Chris Pedersen, Director of Research at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. (Amazon links on the website.)

Right now, you can download the PDF for free if you sign up for their free e-mail newsletter. You also get a free PDF download of their other book, We’re Talking Millions!: 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement by Paul Merriman and Richard Buck. I would recommend downloading it now and saving it to read later. Both books also contain a lot of general personal finance advice, but if you want to understand why you hear the term “small cap value” (SCV) a lot in DIY investment circles, this book may be of interest.

2 Funds for Life strategies augment target-date funds to reduce risk with age, increase expected returns, raise safe withdrawal rates, and achieve higher overall survival rates.

Small Cap Value has long periods of severe underperformance, but also many periods of outperformance against the overall total US market and S&P 500. The hard part is to keep holding SCV through those years of consecutive underperformance. Here is a chart of asset class returns by decade that illustrates this point:

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Steady Investing Returns: $833 a Month x 10 Years = $145,000 (2013-2022)

Posted on January 29, 2023 // 2 Comments

Instead of only looking at year-to-date or last year’s return numbers that are often quoted in the media, I also like to take a longer-term perspective (especially on down years). How would a steady investor have done over the last decade?

Target date funds. The Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund is an all-in-one fund that is low-cost, globally-diversified, and available both inside many employer retirement plans and to anyone that funds an IRA. When you are young (up until age 40 for those retiring at 65), this fund holds 90% stocks and 10% bonds. It is a solid default choice in a world of mediocre, overpriced options. This is also a good benchmark for others that use low-cost index funds.

The power of consistent, tax-advantaged investing. For the last decade, the maximum allowable annual contribution to a Traditional or Roth IRA has been roughly $5,000 per person. The maximum allowable annual contribution for a 401k, 403b, or TSP plan has been over $10,000 per person. If you have a household income of $67,000, then $10,000 is right at the 15% savings rate mark. Therefore, I’m going to use $10,000 as a benchmark amount. This round number also makes it easy to multiply the results as needed to match your own situation. Save $5,000 a year? Halve the result. Save $20,000 a year? Double the numbers, and so on.

The real-world payoff from a decade of saving $833 a month. What would have happened if you put $10,000 a year into the Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund, every year, for the past 10 years? With the interactive tools at Morningstar and a Google spreadsheet, we get this:

Investing $10,000 every year ($833 a month, or $384 per bi-weekly paycheck) for the last decade would have resulted in a total balance of $145,000. That’s $100,000 in steady contributions and $45,000 in investment gains.

It gets even better over time. There is a popular example of the power of compound interest that shows how someone who started saving at age 25, saves and invests for 10 years but then stops and never saves a penny again still beats someone who starts saving at 35 and keeps on saving for 30 years. Acorns provides a nice illustration:

The “Rule of 72” shows us that with just 7.2% annual returns, your money will double every decade from now on. After another 10 years, every $100k will be $200k. After another 10 years, that $200k will be $400k. Once you have that initial momentum, it just keeps going.

Here are my previous “saving for a decade” posts:

Bottom line. Saving now can be hard, especially when you see your investment balances drop. But over time, with consistency and starting early, things smooth out. You can truly build serious wealth with something as accessible and boring as an IRA/401k plan and a Vanguard Target Retirement fund (or a simple collection of low-cost index funds).

Filed Under: Inspirational, Investing, Retirement //

Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns 2022 Year-End Update

Posted on January 17, 2023 // 1 Comment

It’s the same at the end of every year. People will explain 2022 to you like it was obvious that cash would be king, and the proceed to make confident predictions about 2023. Humility may not get you a lot of social media followers, but it’s a better long-term bet at making and keeping you wealthy.

Callan Associates updates a “periodic table” annually with the relative performance of 8 major asset classes over the last 20 years. You can find the most recent one at their website Callan.com. The best performing asset class is listed at the top, and it sorts downward until you have the worst performing asset. Above is the most recent snapshot of 2003-2022 (click to enlarge). I find it easiest to focus on a specific Asset Class (Color) and then visually noting how its relative performance bounces around.

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes (stocks vs. bonds), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. global ex-U.S.). The Table highlights the uncertainty inherent in all capital markets. Rankings change every year. Also noteworthy is the difference between absolute and relative performance, as returns for the top-performing asset class span a wide range over the past 20 years.

Key takeaway: The best you can do is to identify assets that are a good long-term investment, with the acceptance that the short-term ride will be unpredictable and it will never be at the top every single year.

dilbert_divers

(Dilbert comic source)

Filed Under: Investing //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – January 2023

Posted on January 10, 2023 // 3 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of January 2023, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. We all need some safe assets for cash reserves or portfolio stability, and there are often lesser-known opportunities available to individual investors. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you’d earn by moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 1/9/2023.

TL;DR: 5% on up to $25,000 from fintech. Short-term rates up a little. 4.35% APY available on liquid savings. 4.60% to 5% APY available on short-term CDs Compare against Treasury bills and bonds at every maturity (12-month near 4.70%). 6.89% Savings I Bonds can be bought with 2023 annual limits now.

Fintech accounts
Available only to individual investors, fintech companies often pay higher-than-market rates in order to achieve fast short-term growth (often using venture capital). “Fintech” is usually a software layer on top of a partner bank’s FDIC insurance.

  • 5% on up to $25,000. Juno now pays 5% on all cash deposits up to $25,000 and 3% on cash deposits from $25,001 up to $250,000. No direct deposits required. If you set up direct deposit and qualify for their Metal tier, you may be able to upgrade to 5.5% interest. Please see my Juno review for details.
  • 4.00% APY on $6,000. Current offers 4% APY on up to $6,000 total ($2,000 each on three savings pods). Must maintain a direct deposit of $200+ every 35 days. $50 referral bonus for new members with $200+ direct deposit with promo code JENNIFEP185. Please see my Current app review for details.
  • 4.00% APY on up to $250,000, but requires direct deposit and credit card spend. Now again accepting new applicants. The top tier requires you to maintain positive cashflow in the checking account each month, $500 in total monthly direct deposits, and $500 in credit card purchases each month. Existing customers will get up to 4% APY through April 2023, with requirements waived through March 2023. Please see my HM Bradley review for details.

High-yield savings accounts
Since the huge megabanks STILL pay essentially no interest, I think every should have a separate, no-fee online savings account to accompany your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • The leapfrogging to be the temporary “top” rate continues. MySavingsDirect at 4.35% APY. All America/Redneck Bank is at 4.25% APY for balances up to $75,000 ($500 to open, no min balance).
  • SoFi Bank is now up to 3.75% APY + up to $275 new account bonus with direct deposit. You must maintain a direct deposit of any amount each month for the higher APY. SoFi has their own bank charter now so no longer a fintech by my definition. See details at $25 + $250 SoFi Money new account and deposit bonus.
  • There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at 3.30%+ APY that aren’t the absolute top rate, but historically do keep it relatively competitive for those that don’t want to keep switching banks.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 4.10% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 3.50% APY for all balance tiers. Marcus has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 3.50% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • INSBANK has a 12-month certificate at 4.85% APY. $2,500 minimum. Early withdrawal penalty is 90 days of interest.
  • NASA FCU has a special 9-month certificate at 4.60% APY. $10,000 min, new money required. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization membership.

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs*
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). * Money market mutual funds are regulated, but ultimately not FDIC-insured, so I would still stick with highly reputable firms. I am including a few ultra-short bond ETFs as they may be your best cash alternative in a brokerage account, but they may experience short-term losses.

  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund is the default sweep option for Vanguard brokerage accounts, which has an SEC yield of 4.22%. Odds are this is much higher than your own broker’s default cash sweep interest rate.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 4.36% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 4.46% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is some term interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 4.57% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 4.51% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks and are fully backed by the US government. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 1/9/23, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.24% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.70% annualized interest.
  • The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 3.94% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.10 years. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 3.87% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.08 years.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2022 and April 2023 will earn a 6.89% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More on Savings Bonds here.
  • In mid-April 2023, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.
  • See below about EE Bonds as a potential long-term bond alternative.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are severely capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore, as I feel the work required and the fees charged if you mess up exceeds any small potential benefit.

  • Mango Money pays 6% APY on up to $2,500, if you manage to jump through several hoops. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.
  • NetSpend Prepaid pays 5% APY on up to $1,000 but be warned that there is also a $5.95 monthly maintenance fee if you don’t maintain regular monthly activity.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • Pelican State Credi Union pays 5.11% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into receive only online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization membership.
  • All America/Redneck Bank pays 4.50% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 10 debit card purchases each monthly cycle with online statements.
  • The Bank of Denver pays 4.00% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases of $5+ each, receive only online statements, and make at least 1 ACH credit or debit transaction per statement cycle. Thanks to reader Bill for the updated info.
  • Presidential Bank pays 4.00% APY on balances between $500 and up to $25,000 (3.00% APY above that) if you maintain a $500+ direct deposit and at least 7 electronic withdrawals per month (ATM, POS, ACH and Billpay counts).
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 15-month CD at 5% APY. Open now with just $50, but you can still add on more deposits later. You must have a military relationship to join NavyFed.
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 5-year certificate at 4.63% APY ($500 min), 4-year at 4.58% APY, 3-year at 4.52% APY, 2-year at 4.47% APY, and 1-year at 4.42% APY. They also have jumbo certificates with $100,000 minimums at even higher rates. These are competitive rates to build a CD ladder, but know that the early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is very high at 600 days of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I don’t see any 5-year non-callable CDs. Be wary of higher rates from callable CDs, which means they can call back your CD if rates drop later.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CDs at (none available, non-callable) vs. 3.60% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs where they can call your CD back if interest rates drop.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate, currently 2.10%. As of 1/9/23, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 3.83%.

All rates were checked as of 1/9/2023.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

MMB Portfolio 2022 Year-End Update: Dividend & Interest Income

Posted on January 9, 2023 // 1 Comment

Here’s my 2022 Year-End income update for my Humble Portfolio. I track the income produced as an alternative metric for performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements (price), which helps encourage consistent investing. I imagine my portfolio as a factory that churns out dollar bills.

Short recap about dividends. Stock dividends are a portion of net profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares directly. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI), courtesy of StockAnalysis.com. Unfortunately, they recently shortened their lookback period on their charts.

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that also means the dividends move up and down with earnings. Thus the starting yield is higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market. Here’s a related quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies.

My personal portfolio income history. I started tracking the income from my portfolio in 2014. Here’s what the annual distributions from my portfolio look like over time:

  • $1,000,000 invested in my portfolio as of January 2014 would have generated about $24,000 in annual income over the previous 12 months. (2.4% starting yield)
  • If I reinvested the income but added no other contributions, over the year of 2022 it would have generated ~$51,500 in annual income over the previous 12 months.

This chart shows how the annual income generated by my portfolio has increased over time and with dividend reinvestment.

TTM income yield. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 1/6/23), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. The trailing income yield for this quarter was 3.33%, as calculated below. Then I multiply by the current balance from my brokerage statements to get the total income.

Asset Class / Fund % of Portfolio Trailing 12-Month Yield Yield Contribution
US Total Stock (VTI) 30% 1.66% 0.50%
US Small Value (VBR) 5% 2.03% 0.10%
Int’l Total Stock (VXUS) 20% 3.09% 0.62%
Int’l Small Value (AVDV/EYLD) 5% 4.36% 0.22%
US Real Estate (VNQ) 10% 3.91% 0.39%
Inter-Term US Treasury Bonds (VGIT) 15% 1.74% 0.26%
Inflation-Linked Treasury Bonds (TIP) 15% 6.96% 1.04%
Totals 100% 3.13%

 

My ttm portfolio yield is now roughly 3.13%, a bit lower than last quarter’s value. (This is not the same as the dividend yield commonly reported in stock quotes, which just multiplies the last quarterly dividend by four.) US dividends went up a bit, international dividends went down a bit, Treasury bond yield is catching up, TIPS yield is still high from tracking CPI inflation.

What about the 4% rule? For goal planning purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (before age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). It’s just a quick and dirty target, not a number sent down from the heavens. I keep the 3% number in mind, while also tracking dividends and interest (and inflation). During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving in your skillset, and/or looking for entrepreneurial opportunities where you can have an ownership interest.

As a semi-retired investor that has been partially supported by portfolio income for a while, I find that tracking income makes more tangible sense in my mind and is more useful for those who aren’t looking for a traditional retirement. Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are another “paycheck”. Then, as with a traditional paycheck, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. Even if we spend the dividends, this portfolio paycheck will still grow over time. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on.

Right now, I am happily in the “my kids still think I’m cool and want to spend time with me” zone. I am consciously choosing to work when they are at school but also consciously turning down work that doesn’t fit my priorities and goals. This portfolio income helps me do that.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

MMB Humble Portfolio 2022 Year-End Update: Asset Allocation & Performance

Posted on January 5, 2023 // 4 Comments

portpie_blank200Here’s my quarterly update on my current investment holdings as of the end of 2022, including our 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excluding real estate and side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but just to share our real, imperfect, low-cost, diversified DIY portfolio. Wouldn’t it be nice if everyone else did the same? (Many people do track the 13F filings of well-known investors.)

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types. There are limited free options nowadays as Morningstar recently discontinued free access to their portfolio tracker. I use both Personal Capital and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings:

End of 2022 Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Allocation” and “Holdings” tabs of my Personal Capital account.

Target Asset Allocation. I call this my “Humble Portfolio” because it accepts the repeated findings that individuals cannot reliably time the market, and that persistence in above-average stock-picking and/or sector-picking is exceedingly rare. Costs matter and nearly everyone who sells outperformance, for some reason keeps charging even if they provide zero outperformance! By paying minimal costs including management fees and tax drag, you can essentially guarantee yourself above-average net performance over time.

I own broad, low-cost exposure to productive assets that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I have faith in the long-term benefit of owning businesses worldwide, as well as the stability of high-quality US Treasury debt. My stock holdings roughly follow the total world market cap breakdown at roughly 60% US and 40% ex-US. I add just a little “spice” to the vanilla funds with the inclusion of “small value” ETFs for US, Developed International, and Emerging Markets stocks as well as additional real estate exposure through US REITs.

I strongly believe in the importance of knowing WHY you own something. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to truly make your money. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios, as I don’t think picking through the details of the recent past will necessarily create superior future returns. You’ll find that whatever model portfolio is popular in the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently as well.

Find productive assets that you believe in and understand, and just keep buying them through the ups and downs. Mine may be different than yours.

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or 2:1 ratio) within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. My goal is more “perpetual income portfolio” as opposed to the more common “build up a big stash and hope it lasts until I die” portfolio. My target withdrawal rate is 3% or less. Here is a round-number breakdown of my target asset allocation.

  • 30% US Total Market
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value
  • 20% International Total Market
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value
  • 10% US Real Estate (REIT)
  • 15% US Treasury Nominal Bonds or FDIC-insured deposits
  • 15% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (or I Savings Bonds)

Commentary. The goal of this “Humble Portfolio” is to create sustainable income that keeps up with inflation to cover our household expenses. According to Personal Capital, my portfolio went down about 16% for 2022. There was only a little minor rebalancing to be done this quarter.

Due to the rising real yield on TIPS, I have shifted back to a target bond allocation of roughly 50% US Treasury/Bank CDs and 50% TIPS/I Savings Bonds. My traditional Treasuries are of intermediate term, and I may convert to a manual ladder of them in the future. My TIPS are also of intermediate to long-term, depending on the real yields available at the time of purchase. I have been manually buying individual TIPS of longer terms this quarter. 1.6% real yield may not be terribly exciting, but it’s a lot better that was available for a long time, and it may be better that what will be available in the future.

I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //
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