Bloomberg has an interview transcript with investor John Paulson, and it has the catchy headline Billionaire Paulson Who Shorted Subprime Calls Crypto ‘Worthless’ Bubble. He does say that, but the interview also includes some insights on many other topics like asymmetrical trades, gold, the highly-limited supply of crypto leading to high volatility, interest rates, and controlling how you spend your time.

If you are having trouble getting around the paywall, let me include this quote:

If somebody came to you and asked how they should invest $100,000, what would you tell them?

I always say the best investment for an average individual is to buy their own home. So if you take that $100,000, put 10% down, get a $900,000 mortgage, you can buy a home for a $1 million. It was just reported that home prices were up 20% in the last month. So if you bought a home for a $1 million with $100,000 down and the home was up 20%, that’s $200,000 on a $100,000 investment. The longer you wait, the more the house is going to appreciate and the greater return you’ll have on your equity investment. So I think the single best investment for anyone with that type of money would be to buy their own house or apartment.

Basically, mortgages offer cheap leverage on an asset that he believe will keep going up for a while. A person can take $50,000 and control a $500,000 asset. If it goes up 10%, you just made another $50,000 and doubled your initial $50,000.

Yes, we learned that leverage works both ways in the 2008 Financial Crisis, meaning that if that $500,000 drops by 10%, you just lost your $50,000 downpayment. That’s what Paulson is most well-known for – making $20 billion betting against subprime mortgages during that crisis. In fact, I recall Paulson saying something very similar back in 2014 or so, that housing prices are going to keep going up. Here is the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index chart from Calculated Risk:

With this interview, I guess he doesn’t see this trend ending soon. I’m not saying I necessarily agree with this answer, but it is an interesting one when you consider all of the possible options.

I’ve invested over $50,000 of my “alternative” money into PeerStreet real estate notes because of the ability to diversify into 50+ different high-interest loans backed by physical real estate. Here is a case study of a $10 million mansion that bounced in and out of late status for years, only to suddenly get paid back in full. You can find additional case study links and the most recent update to my overall portfolio performance in my Peerstreet review.

I called this property “90210” as it was located in a prime spot in Beverly Hills. The loan photo on the Peerstreet listing was quite drab:

Here’s what it looked like on the MLS page when they listed it for over $10 million:

Initial investment details.

• Property: Single-family residential property in California.
• Target Net Investor Rate/Term: 8.25% APR for 31 months.
• Appraised at $8.75M = 60% LTV.
• Cash-out/Bridge loan secured by the property in first position.
• Loan originator retained 13% “skin in the game”.

Timeline.

• June 2018. Loan originated. Original maturity date was January 2020.
• June 2019. Payments are now late.
• August to September 2019. Payments are still late. Demand letters are sent.
• October 2019 to January 2020. Intermittent payments are made, but still behind and late.
• February 2020. Peerstreet approves a loan extension to April 2020.
• April 2020. Late again.
• May 2020. Loan brought current!
• July 2020. Guess whose late again?
• August 2020. Another extension is approved, but does it really matter?
• September 2020 to January 2021. Still… late.
• February 2021. Loan is suddenly paid off in full.

Final numbers. As the loan was paid off in full, I earned the full promised 8.25% annualized return but for 31 months instead of the original 18 months. I guess that worked out to my benefit, given the current low interest rate environment. My overall annualized return across my entire Peerstreet portfolio is currently 6.9%. These numbers are net of all PeerStreet fees.

My commentary. This loan is an example where for nearly three years, I stared at the same loan that with a late/default status every time I logged into Peerstreet. It spent more time late than current, yet one day it suddenly became paid off in full and actually improved my overall return numbers. The originator appears to be juggling many different loans, but the property remained valuable enough that they really had to eventually pay off this loan despite having to pay me 8.25% interest while I waited.

It was good to see (and rare these days) to see the originator keep an interest in the loan, as that is usually taken as a sign of confidence. I wish I could only invest in loans with such “skin in the game”, but the reality is that Peerstreet inventory is currently in such great demand that nearly all of their notes sell out instantly to automated investors.

Again, the lesson is to diversify, ignore the late status, and invest money with which you can be patient. Let Peerstreet do the due diligence and manage the late payments and possibly the foreclosure process.

Bottom line. At the moment, out of the $50,000+ I’ve now invested into 66 loans at PeerStreet over 4+ years, 55 were paid back, 8 are current, and 3 are late. However, many of those paid-off loans were late at some point in time. This is one example of a single-family residential loan that was constantly late for years, but ended up being paid in full. The annualized return for this loan was 8.25%, while my overall annualized return across my entire portfolio is 6.9%.

If you are interested, you can sign up and browse investments at PeerStreet for free before depositing any funds or making any investments. You must qualify as an accredited investor (either via income or net worth) to invest. If you already invest with them, they now sync with Mint.com.

I’ve invested over $50,000 of my “alternative” money into PeerStreet real estate notes because of the ability to diversify into 50+ different high-interest loans backed by physical real estate. Here is a case study shared by a helpful reader about a “disaster” loan with multiple bad factors – bankrupt building owner, bankrupt tenant, a charitable donation, poorly-aligned incentives, COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and forced selling. You can find additional case study links and the most recent update to my overall portfolio performance in my Peerstreet review.

Initial investment details.

• Property: Office building in Springfield, Ohio.
• Target Net Investor Rate/Term: 8.75% APR for 31 months.
• Amount: $3,600,404 loan.
• 60% LTV based on 3rd-party appraisal of $7.76 million.
• Loan secured by the property in first position.
• Cash-out refinance.

Timeline.

• February 2018. Loan is originated.
• December 2018. Payments stop.
• January 2019. Payments are over 30 days late, demand letters are sent, etc.
• April 2019. Foreclosure complaint filed.
• April 2020. A year has passed. Foreclosure process drags on, but now all foreclosures are halted due to COVID-19.
• August 2020. Foreclosure auction date set for October 2020.
• October 2020. PeerStreet abruptly decides to sell to a third-party for net proceeds to investors of $573,281.31 for a final return (including interest paid to date) of 18% of the original investment.

How did a $3.6 million loan backed by a building that was appraised for $7.8 million in 2018 end up only giving back investors $580,000 less than two years later? How did a loan with a supposedly 60% loan-to-value ratio end up paying back only 18 cents on the dollar? After reading all the screenshots and documentation provided along with some poking around online, here’s what happened in the background.

A wealthy couple donates what might be the most prestigious commercial address in downtown Springfield, Ohio. The address is literally “1 Main Street.” Look at the building entrance from Google Maps Streetview. The lucky nonprofit recipient immediately agrees to sell it to EF Hutton, which renames it EF Hutton Tower. The nonprofit is happy, but they are on a payment plan and also get paid partially in EF Hutton stock. (Cue ominous music…)

EF Hutton is now both the building owner and the anchor tenant. So the same company that owns the building is also the source of most of the rental income. They now want a cash-out refinance, and obtain an appraisal of $7.78 million in January 2018. Now, if there was an independent buyer for this property, the appraisal might have been done with more skepticism. But it was appraised as a charitable donation (i.e tax write-off) for a needy non-profit! Many people potentially benefited from a high appraisal. The building owner gets more money from the cash-out refi, the donor get a bigger tax break, the recipient gets a high-publicity donation, even Peerstreet got a note with a great LTV%. Everyone except the person holding the bag at the end.

Okay, so time moves on. EF Hutton is quickly in financial trouble and being investigated by the SEC, somehow pivoting from stock trading to mobile phones to cryptocurrencies on its way to bankruptcy. Check out this Springfield News Sun article about their $12 million in debt. The anchor tenant is broke. There is no rent being paid. The nonprofit is owed money. Property insurance and property taxes are not being paid. The building is no longer being maintained. From a Peerstreet letter to noteholders:

As the foreclosure proceedings were ongoing, PeerStreet made repeated efforts to gain access to the property and assess its condition. After the court granted PeerStreet partial access to the property, we discovered water damage, deferred maintenance on the elevators and other maintenance issues caused by the borrower’s failure to maintain the property, which inspectors estimated would cost over $1M to remedy.

In addition to this, the borrower stopped making property insurance payments, which PeerStreet then advanced to protect investors’ interests in the collateral. The borrower also defaulted on property taxes in excess of $700,000.00.

COVID-19 crushes the local economy. Nobody is there to protect the building during civil unrest. There is no anchor tenant. $1m in property damage. $700,000 in property taxes. Even so, I don’t understand why Peerstreet didn’t just wait for the foreclosure auction. I’d personally feel more confident if there was an open auction. Could they have held out until after the pandemic passes? That’s what I would have done if I was the sole owner. However, Peerstreet might simply value a fast resolution over absolute final return.

Final numbers. As noted above, the final return (including interest paid to date) was 18% of the original investment. (As in, you put in $100 originally and get $18 back.)

My commentary. Both bad luck and bad incentives lined up for such a bad result. The appraisal was obviously too high in retrospect. Whenever someone donates something big, even though it is a charitable act, the donor still wants it to be valued as highly as possible while the nonprofit also benefits. The tax deduction here was worth millions. EF Hutton also wanted the highest valuation possible as it was a cash-out refi. COVID and economic factors only made it worse. Once it was clear that they had no more skin in the game (equity), EF Hutton let the property fall into ruin.

A cynic might wonder if EF Hutton knew this would happen and wanted to walk away with as much money in its pockets as possible? Where did all the money from their $12 million in debt go? Highly suspicious.

Getting back 18 cents on the dollar really hurts, and makes me wonder how this might happen on a more commonplace residential property (and how to avoid it). You would still need an inflated appraisal (avoid cash-out refis?). You would also need the owner to stop caring about the property and let it get totally trashed (maintain equity?). You would need a severe economic downturn and a forced sale (more skin in the game from Peerstreet to encourage more patience?).

Finally, this is another lesson in the importance of diversification. If this was a $1,000 loan amongst 50 different loans, your loss would be 1.6% of your total $50,000 portfolio.

Bottom line. Even though I’ve now invested and reinvesting $60,000+ into 63 loans at PeerStreet over 4+ years, I haven’t had one (knock on wood) completely “blow up”. I’ve had several spend several months in default, only to be paid back in full with interest. Thanks to a helpful reader, I was able to share this story and hopefully provide some educational value. Most importantly, this should teach you to diversify even if the loan looks solid, as even if you replaced any one of my $1,000 loans with this “worst-case scenario”, thanks to diversification my overall portfolio return would still be positive.

If you are interested, you can sign up and browse investments at PeerStreet for free before depositing any funds or making any investments. You must qualify as an accredited investor (either via income or net worth) to invest. If you already invest with them, they now sync with Mint.com.

Updated February 2021. I started investing in PeerStreet real-estate backed loans in July 2016. I’ve long liked the idea of hard money loans, but I wanted more diversification as opposed to tying all my money up with one single property. Peerstreet requires you to be an accredited investor. (There are other real-estate sites like Fundrise that don’t require that status.) Here are my overall numbers after over four years, with details below:

• Total deposits (loaned principal): $35,000 ($60,000)
• Total interest and fees earned: $3,979
• 52 loans made and paid off, 8 current loans, and 3 late/default.
• Internal rate of return (IRR) of 6.92% as of 2/16/2021.

Basic idea: Short-term loans backed by real estate. Real estate equity investors want to take out short-term loans (6 to 24 months) and don’t fit the profile of a traditional mortgage borrower. They are professional investors with multiple properties, need bridge financing, or they are on a tight timeline. As a real-estate-backed loan investor, you lend them money at 6% to 12% and usually backed by a first lien on the property. The borrower stands to lose the equity in their property, so they are incentivized to avoid default. In the worst case, you would foreclose and liquidate the property in order to get your money back. However, this is better than Prosper or LendingClub where it is an unsecured loan and your only recourse is to lower their credit score.

What are PeerStreet strengths? Here are the reasons that I decided to put more a higher amount of money into PeerStreet as compared to other worthwhile real estate marketplace sites:

• Debt-only focus. Other real estate (RE) sites will offer both equity and debt (and things in between). PeerStreet only focuses on debt, and I also prefer the simplicity of debt. There is limited upside but also less downside. Traditionally, this might be called “hard money lending”.
• Lower $1,000 investment minimum. Many RE investment sites have minimums of $10,000 or $25,000. At PeerStreet, $25,000 will get me slices of loans from 25 different real estate properties. You can even reinvest your earnings with as little as $100.
• Greater availability of investments. Amongst all the RE websites that I have joined, PeerStreet has the highest and most steady volume of loans that I’ve seen. I dislike having idle cash just sit there, waiting and not earning interest. They apparently have a unique process where they have a network of lenders that bring in loans for them. They don’t originate loans themselves, they basically buy loans from these partners if they fit their criteria. This steady volume allows the lower $1,000 minimums and more diversification, as well as easy reinvestment of matured loans.
• Automated investing. The above two characteristics allow PeerStreet to run an automated investment program. You give them say $5,000 and they will invest it automatically amongst five $1,000 loans. You can set certain criteria (LTV ratio, term length, interest rate). When a loan matures, the software can automatically reinvest your available cash. I don’t even have to log in.
• Consistent underwriting. You should perform your own due diligence in this area, as you can only feel comfortable with automated investing if you think every loan is underwritten fairly. The riskier loans get higher interest rates. The less-risky loans get lower interest rates. The shady borrowers are turned away. I hope they earn their cut by doing this difficult task.
• Strong venture capital backing. They have a history of increased funding. Series A was $15 million in November 2016. Series B was $30 million in April 2018. Series C was $60 million in October 2019.

Here’s a screenshot of the automated investing customizer tool:

What are PeerStreet drawbacks? A general drawback to real-estate backed loans is that your upside is limited to the full interest being paid back on time, while your downside is much larger if there is a prolonged housing crash. As long as housing prices are flat to strong, everything will probably work out fine because your collateral will cover everything. This is why it is important to have a cushion via the loan-to-value ratio.

In my opinion, one major drawback specific to Peerstreet is lower yields. This is just my limited understanding and I may be wrong, but PeerStreet has a network of lenders bringing in these deals and thus need to be paid some sort of “finders fee”, so the net yield to the investor feels lower than other sites. You could argue that this is also their secret sauce that brings in the high loan volume (and ideally the ability to be more selective), but at some point the rate is too low to justify the risks being taken.

In the current low-interest rate environment, it is also my opinion that too many real estate crowdfunding sites are chasing too few loans, which has been driving down the interest rates offered. I started out being able to find a lot of loans in the 8% to 9% range, but now the more conservative notes are in the 7%-7.5% range. In the current yield environment, my target is an 8% return while also maintaining a loan-to-value ratio of 70% or less.

How does PeerStreet make money? As with other real estate marketplace lenders, they charge a servicing fee. PeerStreet charges between 0.25% and 1%, taken out from the interest payments. This way, PeerStreet only gets paid when you get paid. When you invest, you see the fee and net interest rate that you’ll earn. In exchange, they help source the investments, set up all the required legal structures, service the loans, and coordinate the foreclosure process in case of default. In some cases, the originating lenders retains a partial interest in the loan (“skin in the game”). Here’s a partial screenshot:

What if PeerStreet goes bankrupt? This is the same question posed to LendingClub and Prosper, and their solution is also the same. The loans are held in a bankruptcy-remote entity and will continue to be serviced by a third-party even in a bankruptcy event. From their FAQ:

PeerStreet also holds loans in a bankruptcy-remote entity that is separate from our primary corporate entity. In the event PeerStreet no longer remains in business, a third-party “special member” will step in to manage loan investments and ensure that investors continue to receive interest and principal payments. Additionally, investor funds are held in an Investors Trust Account with City National Bank and FDIC insured up to $250,000.

Tax forms? In previous years, I received both a 1099-INT and a 1099-OID. Basically, both include your gains that will be taxed at ordinary income rates (like bank account interest). Here’s what PeerStreet says:

PeerStreet investors will be issued a consolidated Form 1099 for the income distributed from their investment positions. Investors may receive one or more of the following types of 1099 form:

1099-OID for notes with terms longer than one year (at the time of issue)
1099-INT for notes with terms less than one year (at the time of issue)
1099-MISC for incentives, late fees or other income, if more than $600.

My personal performance. I started with a $10,000 investment in 2016, added another $15,000 in 2017, and added another $10,000 in 2019. Altogether, I also made about $25,000 of withdrawals whenever a loan was paid back and the loan inventory was not attractive. (They pay no interest in idle cash, and I don’t like their short-term options.) Each of my loans was less than 5% of the total portfolio. In order to get first dibs on the good loans, I set up automatic reinvestment when possible.

Here is a screenshot from my account:

As of February 2021, my internal rate of return (IRR) is 6.92% annualized net of all fees and taking into account the periods where my cash was idle. I verified this using my own spreadsheet and it matches the reporting by Peerstreet. Right now, 3 loans are in some phase of the foreclosure process. These loans are all less than 70% LTV, but I don’t know what the final recovery amount will be. In the past, I have had several late loans and all were resolved with no loss of principal (but that is no guarantee of the future). I expect my final IRR to be in the 6% to 7% range.

If you are thinking about this investment, the things I would want you to know are:

• Real-estate backed loans are highly illiquid and the “maturity date” is just a hopeful number. You can’t just make a few clicks and sell, while the foreclosure process can take years to complete.
• If you want some degree of reliable cashflow and/or liquidity for your funds, it is important to diversify across multiple, smaller loans.
• The collateral makes a huge difference. With P2P unsecured loans, being 60 days late usually meant I was going to recover pennies on the dollar. With Peerstreet, I could wait around for an extra year yet still end up with all my principal plus most of the owed interest (if not more due to late charges). I have had many missed maturity dates over the years, but none of my loans have actually resulted in a loss. Usually the borrower realizes that they are better off figuring out how to pay back the loan rather than lose the property. Case Study #1. Case Study #2.
• My expected net return of 6% to 7% has a good chance to be higher than even many “junk” bonds (and certainly high-grade corporate bonds) in this ultra-low interest rate environment. Being able to earn even 5-6% when corporate bonds are earning only 2-3% is going to attract some attention. Peerstreet is already working on packaging their loans into a fund, which may result in institutional money taking over soon.
• It shouldn’t be overlooked that my ownership period did not include any prolonged, severe housing price drops.

Case studies. Here are detailed examples from my own investing experience that help illustrate my points:

• Peerstreet Case Study #1: 90+ Day Late Condo Near-Foreclosure Recovery
• Peerstreet Case Study #2: NJ Commercial Property Foreclosure Recovery
• Peerstreet Case Study #3: COVID-Era Office Building Foreclosure Disaster
• Peerstreet Case Study #4: The Perpetually-Late Beverly Hills Estate

Other sites that are offering new asset classes are Fundrise (direct ownership of real estate equity), FarmTogether (farmland), Masterworks (art), and Yieldstreet (various). I’ve also invested in LendingClub and Prosper (consumer loans).

Bottom line. PeerStreet offers higher-yield, short-term loans backed by physical real estate. As compared to traditional “hard money lending” on single local properties, Peerstreet allows investors to diversify easily with a $1,000 minimum investment per property, automated reinvestment, and nationwide exposure. In exchange, PeerStreet charges a servicing fee between 0.25% and 1%, taken out of the interest charged to the borrower. The returns you see in the listing are net of their fees. This is a unique asset class and it is important to understand the patience required due to limited liquidity.

If you are interested, you can sign up and browse investments at PeerStreet for free before depositing any funds or making any investments. You must qualify as an accredited investor (either via income or net worth) to invest. If you already invest with them, they now sync with Mint.com.